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Pandemic Potentials Blog

Lab Confirmed nCoV Cases Exceed SARS

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Today's update from the China CDC indicated that the number of PCR confirmed cases (8,538), which represent a jump of 3,879 cases over yesterday's total, exceeded the total for confirmed cases in the SARS 2002/2003 outbreak , which lasted 6 months.

The exponential growth went largely unnoticed.

Media reports focused on confirmed cases, which are those that test positive twice.  The first test is done locally at regional centers.  The positives are then sent to the National Lab, in Wuhan, for confirmation.  Confirmations have  showed a steady rise in the past three days (1287-->1975-->2794). In contrast, the rise is suspect (presumptive positive) cases has been much more dramatic (1965-->2684-->5794) to generate alarming totals for lab confirmed (1X) cases (3252-->4659-->8538).

The above numbers are also published by WHO in their situation reports, which lag China CDC updates by a day.

This epic failure to communication the significance of the increases in the suspect cases by these two organizations (and reporters who theoretically read them) remains remarkable.

http://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/szkb_11803/jszl_11809/202001/t20200127_211470.html

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