Coronavirus (content by Zawy)

[zawy]

I've been tracking trends and would like a place to collect them for the public. I'll be reading and listening to all your content, so this is just a convenient place for me to send people for your content and mine.  Hopefully you'll find my content good enough to allow it in this thread.

The following equation is my estimate of minimal U.S. & Canada cases by April 15th based on Dr. Niman's estimate that 750 infected people got off the Diamond Princess Feb 21, that 1 person was infected in Seattle on January 15 (see Trevor Bedford), the assumption Europe  (without Italy) is similar to the U.S. in temperature and culture, and that it is increasing about 20% per day.  The 3-day rolling average for Europe (excluding Italy) has been 26% to 44% per day the last 9 days but I'll assume the excess is increased testing. Notice that U.S. is currently more like Italy than Europe because of lack of testing so this is conservative.  20% is a doubling in 4 days. Trevor Bedford is estimating 6.1 days (12.5%) which is clearly low unless strong containment is in place or it is warm weather. 

So, with all those assumptions and estimates in mind, and not counting the Italy-sourced  cases in the U.S. and not counting the French, Spanish, and German travelers entering the  U.S. (3.5x more per day than Italy under normal circumstances), here is my minimal estimate for U.S. cases (actual, not necessarily tested)

U.S. & Canada Cases underestimate by April 15 = 750 * 1.20^54 + 1 * 1.20^90 = 27.5 M.

A much more conservative way is to say there are only 5,000 cases in U.S. right now.

5000 * 1.2^39 = 6.2 M

 

The "optimistic intervention" might be VERY optimistic.  The U.S. is very likely already past the 10,000 cases mark, which would shift the blue line up 10x and staying nuder 1 M in that case would still be a level of intervention that I do not think the government and our society is capable of.

Edited March 8, 2020 by zawy
text in wrong location

[zawy]

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by zawy
2 new images showing optimistic possibilities

[zawy]

Spain is the next Italy. Based on 28 deaths, Spain should have had 2800 cases 7 days ago (death rate is only 1% if cases are tracked & hospitals are good & not full). This is supported by the average 54% increase/day for last 10 days.

17  flights from Madrid arrived in Charlotte NC today.

Over 1/2 of transmissions occur before symptoms.