Excess Deaths Linked To COVID - CDC Interactive

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Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected. Counts of deaths from all causes are provided, including deaths due to COVID-19. As many deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not mentioned on the death certificate as a suspected cause of death), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted. Additionally, deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 – can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to COVID-19 (e.g., deaths from other causes occurring in the context of health care shortages or overburdened health care systems).

Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). A range of values for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound of the 95% CI), by week and jurisdiction. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Additionally, weights are based on completeness of provisional data in prior years, but the timeliness of data may have changed in 2020 relative to prior years, so that weighted estimates may be too high in some jurisdictions and too low in others. As more information about the accuracy of the weighted estimates is obtained, further refinements may be made and changes to the weighting methods will impact the estimates. Any changes to the methods or weighting algorithm will be noted in the Technical Notes when they occur. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

This visualization includes several different estimates:

• Number of excess deaths: A range of values for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound of the 95% CI), by week and jurisdiction. Negative values, where the observed count fell below the threshold, were set to zero.
• Percent excess: The percent excess was defined as the number of excess deaths divided by the threshold.
• Total number of excess deaths: The total number of excess deaths in each jurisdiction was calculated by summing the excess deaths in each week, from February 1, 2020 to present. Similarly, the total number of excess deaths for the US overall was computed as a sum of jurisdiction-specific numbers of excess deaths (with negative values set to zero), and not directly estimated using the Farrington surveillance algorithms.

Estimates presented here will be updated periodically, and additional information by cause of death will be added in future releases.

Select a dashboard from the drop-down menu, then click on “Update Dashboard” to navigate through different graphics.

• The first dashboard shows the weekly predicted counts of deaths from all causes, and the threshold for the expected number of deaths. Select a jurisdiction from the drop-down menu to show data for that jurisdiction.
• The second dashboard shows the weekly predicted counts of deaths from all causes and the weekly count of deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19. Select a jurisdiction from the drop-down menu to show data for that jurisdiction.
• The third dashboard shows the weekly counts of deaths from all causes. Predicted counts (weighted) are shown, along with reported (unweighted) counts, to illustrate the impact of underreporting. Select a jurisdiction from the drop-down menu to show data for that jurisdiction.
• The fourth dashboard shows the total number of excess deaths since early February, 2020. Jurisdictions with one or more excess deaths are shown. Use the radio button to select all-cause mortality, or all-cause excluding COVID-19. Use the drop-down menu to select certain jurisdictions.
• The fifth dashboard shows the percent by which the observed counts exceed the threshold (i.e. percent excess) by week and jurisdiction. Use the radio button to select all-cause mortality, or all-cause excluding COVID-19. Use the drop-down menu to select certain jurisdictions.

 

Several changes were made to this visualization, effective as of May 12, 2020. More detail can be found in the Technical Notes. Future refinements to the methodology or other changes will be documented in the Technical Notes.

1. COVID-19 deaths were identified using multiple cause of death codes, as opposed to underlying cause of death codes, consistent with how these deaths are reported in other releases.
2. Estimates for Puerto Rico are provided.
3. Methods to handle extreme weights were updated and demographic data from the death certificate were used to improve the weights to better account for underreporting.
4. A range of estimates of excess deaths is provided based on comparing the observed numbers of deaths to two different thresholds: 1) the average expected number of deaths, and 2) the upper bound of the 95% CI of the expected number of deaths.
5. Data are suppressed for weeks where the reported numbers of deaths are highly incomplete (less than 50% of the expected count).
6. Total counts of excess deaths are summed from February 1, 2020 through the most recent week of data.

 

Download datasets in CSV format by clicking on the link for the desired dataset under “CSV Format” link. Additional file formats are available for download for each dataset at Data.CDC.Gov.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm