Stephen Flynn

3,044 deaths / 89,072 confirmed cases = 3.4% If we look at cases with known outcomes, then the population would be 3,044 + total recovered of 45,074, this would give us a total population of 48,118. That leaves 40,954 a remaining set of cases for which the outcome is unknown. Deaths of 3,044 / the total population with known outcomes (48,118) gives us 6.3%. If the 89,072 are the “cases,” in the CFR then it seems that using this definition is pointless. To say that the CFR today is 3.4% is useless information. Why? Because it assumes that all in the remaining 40,954 will recover and no deaths will occur. It seems to me that CFR should not be discussed at all, excepting as a future prediction. About half the “cases” have either died or recovered. So far, worldwide the “death rate” is ~6.3%. So why does the media focus on CFR which understates the death rate? I suppose that for every “case” there may be one, or two, or more, who do not make the definition of “case.” If so, then 6% would (if later defined as cases) drop to 2-3% death rate. My take is that CFR ought not be a quantifier for public information, nor even for clinical use, for it has this large “as yet undetermined” component. So why is the CFR even used? Why not “death rate for the population with known outcomes? Your answer implies the reason is that it would be too alarming, and 3.4% looks less alarming than 6.3%. If so, then so much for honesty and transparency.

"Sequence match between Snohomish Co sequence in community case (17M) and January 1st in UScase (35M also Snohomish)" Is the January 1st a clerical error? Is it the 21st? See A confirmed case of novel coronavirus 2019 in Snohomish County was announced January 21, 2020. The patient had recently traveled to Wuhan, China. *Update 2/20/2020* In consultation with state and federal public health authorities, the Snohomish Health District has released the patient from home isolation. The above is from a search summary. I cannot find on Snohd.org’s (Snohomish Health District) announcement but there are several “supposed” links to it, which do not appear to work. https://www.snohd.org/Search?searchPhrase= novel coronavirus 2019 in Snohomish County was announced January 21%2C 2020

With all that has been going around, about him, he may very well be positive for the virus. Time will tell.

A statement from LifeCare Center of Kirkland, at 7:45 EST “Recently, one of our associates and one of our residents were diagnosed with coronavirus (COVID-19) while receiving care in local hospitals. We only have those two confirmed cases at this time. Current residents and associates are being monitored closely. As is normal this time of year, there are various cold and flu-like symptoms being exhibited from residents and associates. The health department has advised us to monitor for an elevated temperature, cough and shortness of breath. We're consulting with the health department and possibly sending patients to a local hospital for formal COVID-19 testing. That testing is not performed in our facility.” https://lcca.com/locations/wa/kirkland/announcement So much for honesty and transparency. What vastly different perspectives....

I'm inclined to not believe this. I suspect it's "false news."

Dr. Niman made a short reference today in one of his posts to faulty CDC test kits which raises the question as to how many cases exist in America, if there are no test kits available. From the article: A faulty CDC coronavirus test delays monitoring of disease’s spread See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-faulty-cdc-coronavirus-test-delays-monitoring-of-diseases-spread/ar-BB10nglx?li=BBnbcA1 Some excerpts: “While South Korea has run more than 35,000 coronavirus tests, the United States has tested only 426 people, not including people who returned on evacuation flights. Only about a dozen state and local laboratories can now run tests outside of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta because the CDC kits sent out nationwide earlier this month included a faulty component.” “The nation’s public health laboratories, exasperated by the malfunctioning tests in the face of a global public health emergency, have taken the unusual step of appealing to the Food and Drug Administration for permission to develop and use their own tests. In Hawaii, authorities are so alarmed about the lack of testing ability that they requested permission from the CDC to use tests from Japan. A medical director at a hospital laboratory in Boston is developing an in-house test, but is frustrated that his laboratory won’t be able to use it without going through an onerous and time-consuming review process, even if demand surges.”

Apologies for the prior, odd, post, which does not seem editable. First Covid-19 case in Brazil, if confirmed by a second test. “Brazil's Health Ministry said a man has tested positive for the coronavirus on in initial test. If it's confirmed in a second test, it will be the first case in South America.” “First case of COVID-19 in Brazil is registered in the state of São Paulo: 61-year-old patient returned from a trip to Italy on February 21” https://saude.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,brasil-tem-1-resultado-positivo-para-coronavirus-mas-ainda-falta-teste-para-confirmar-diagnostico,70003210088.amp

Hotel worker, 56, is diagnosed with coronavirus after testing negative EIGHT TIMES in 17 days during quarantine https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8042535/Woman-diagnosed-coronavirus-testing-negative-EIGHT-TIMES-quarantine.html I wonder if this is a deficiency in tests being able to pick up a positive, meaning it results in a false negative, or is something else going on. It's a bit of an odd article because they do not say just how she was diagnosed. I wonder if it was diagnosed via CT scan which has characteristic patterns called ggo (ground glass opacities) and "crazy paving." Crazy-paving seems a hallmark of COVID-19, but it shows in a number of other chronic and acute diseases

Go to: https://public.tableau.com/profile/kuldeep.ram#!/vizhome/WuhanCoronavirus/CoronavirusTracker Take a peek at the trajectory of COVID-19 cases in South Korea. Hint: It’s parabolic. Then, go to https://flightaware.com/live/ pull the map over to Incheon Airport (S. Korea) then hover cursor over any, of the many flights now heading to the US to see where it’s going. Then ask the question: Might any of those flights from Incheon to America contain infected individuals? Am I wrong in thinking that this is insane?

Translate the page OR click on the bottom bar of the pop-up to see the map. https://coronamap.site/ Note: Using Chrome I can auto-translate the pop-up to English

Huh? I lost 'ya there...

Thank you for posting it, I watched it and appreciated the post. When you see/hear what appeared fairly obvious beforehand (at least to me) there's not really a reason to respond. The way Japan dealt with the PD was/is a mess and Japan will pay a price along with those who were released who used various means of public transportation, some of which can be reasonably expected to infect others. Most here on the board know this. Infection control is an odd subject. Back in 2001 I went to college specifically to become an APIC (American Professionals in Infection Control) Certified infection control specialist. However, I never realized that goal. I found that a person must work a certain number of hours over two years to be able to sit for the APIC Board test but nobody would hire you to work even part time unless you were APIC certified. Where I worked, the largest tertiary hospital in NH, I offered to work weekends for free--as an intern, but that was not accepted. What this meant that anyone who really wanted to get into IC could not. Positions were usually filled, at that time, by people that really had not worked the requisite two years, but were "in the system," so to speak. It went like this: "We need a new IC person, why don't you do it X?" X responds, "But I don't have the two years for APIC's work requirement." The response went like this: "Oh, no problem, you do infection control every day (universal precautions, wear gloves, wash hands, etc.) I'll just vouch for your experience." Lately, and wisely APIC reversed its position and now a person can become APIC certified without the requisite two-year work requirement, which I think has helped a lot in America. So Infection Control, as you can see in Japan, sometimes is not taken seriously. In America it's taken far more seriously and Japan really messed up (my opinion), though not quite as bad as Prime Minister Hun Sen did in Cambodia handing roses to those departing the Westerdam, as well as throwing a party for those aboard--now that's taking IC to a new level. Then as you can see in the video, even when you have a knowledgeable person as Kentaro is, politics can intervene. Additionally, Kentaro is an Infectious disease doctor (professor), he treats disease, he doesn't deal with the science of controlling the spread of disease quite so much. The APIC certification exam is rigorous and I'd bet that he could not pass it. Treating infectious disease and "controlling infection" are really separate things. See apic.org should you care to.

From the top article: "The finding of live virus particles in stool specimens indicates a fecal-oral route for coronavirus, which may be why it’s caused outbreaks on cruise ships with an intensity often seen with gastro-causing norovirus, which also spreads along that pathway." This could be partly true. I wish I could point to an article that I read long ago about noro-virus transmission in a restaurant. The restaurant was linear with three segments, the last separated by an open doorway. A diner vomited near the entrance. I think every other person in the restaurant contracted noro-virus which meant aerosol transmission. However I have not heard of vomiting--has there been any with this virus? Fecal: Consider the case, was it HK, where an upper floor (7th level) seemingly spread NCOV through the sanitary system. I've read other reports of virus being shed in feces. Fecal-oral, aerosol, persistent presence on doorknobs.... 'tis a clever virus.

Community spread all the way from Iran, and how many were infected on the plane, or other modes of transportation including airport switching flights?

Iran reports two coronavirus deaths, becoming 28th country or territory to report infections https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-20/iran-reports-its-first-2-cases-of-the-new-coronavirus/11982254 ” Two Iranians, who tested positive earlier today for new coronavirus, died of respiratory illness," the official told Mehr. Iran's health ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur confirmed their death on Twitter. Iranian authorities earlier confirmed the country's first two cases of the virus shortly after reports that preliminary tests had come back positive. ISNA news agency quoted an official in the country's health ministry, Kiyanoush Jahanpour, as saying that over the last two days, "some suspected cases of the new coronavirus were found" and the patients had been put in isolation.”