niman Posted February 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2020 Feb 15 Diamond Princess Evacuation - CDC Press release yesterday's positives 67/217 & 285/930 Asymptomatic Testing issues Japan ex-Hawaii cluster Japan local cases linked to Diamond Princess passengers More evacuations by Israel, Hong Kong, possibly Australia More countries will follow suit Westerdam cruise ship over 600 Americans one (83F) America COVID confirmed 185 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia - flying commercial airline? http://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/021520.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 Feb 16 Diamond Princess 70/289 positive incl 38 asymptomatic 355/1219 incl 111 asymptomatic US evacuations (absence of testing - selecting asymptomatic) Canada, Hong Kong, Israel to follow Australia considering evacuations More results from Japan tonight (testing those in 70's) US testing in flight - possible more infections in fight Japan ex-Hawaii cluster grows Westerdam American positive re-test confirms More former passengers creating problems during attempted return to US and Europe http://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/021620.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2020 Feb 17 Diamond Princess 14 Asymptomatic Americans - COVID positives Delay on bus prior to boarding planes Dept State / HHS statement Complications for evacuations of ship by other countries Segregation in California and Texas Westerdam cruise ship COVID positive and released passengers Cluster in Aichi with couple who visited Hawaii https://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/021720.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 Feb 17 Diamond Princess Review of past few days Americans in Omaha Japan MoH on Disembarking Text book on how NOT to control infectious disease Text book on how NOT to conduct a quarantine Serious issues for Americans who chose to stay on ship Westerdam passenger confirmed twice Japan ex-Hawai cluster grows Hoaxes on Bioweapons and HIV inserts http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_021720_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 (edited) Feb 18 Diamond Princess 99 new cases 542 total positives US confirmed (by Japan) cases in California (from Travis AFB) US cases in Nebraska US cases (by Japan) in Texas (unknown) 46 US cases in Japan 70 known US cases overall CDC has not released new numbers More might have been in 99 positives Many more will be found among evacuees Beds in Omaha limited to 60 Beds in local hospitals in California and Texas limited Evacuations by other countries will be problematic http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_021820_hr3.mp3 Edited February 21, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psk Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 There's almost a media blackout in the UK now. I'm very much of the impression that governments across the world are failing very very badly at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Feb 19 Diamond Princess 78/607 positive 68/79 asymptomatic US cases hospitalized near Travis AFB (in California) More evacuees expected to test positive PCR positive asymptomatic cases raise issues for evacuees CDC issues press release on 14 quarantine for citizens on ship or hospitalized in Japan Situation today will evolve rapidly https://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/021920.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psk Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 There are nationalities from over 50 different countries aboard that ship and it appears that now they've all been nicely incubated for the last few weeks, it's time apparently to start sending them back home across the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psk Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Seriously, what is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 (edited) Feb 19 Diamond Princess Fiasco Two fatalities Confirmed increases to 621 Confusion on evacuations US Cases at Travis, Lackland, Omaha Japan ex-Hawaii Cluster http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_021920_hr3.mp3 Edited February 21, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Feb 20 Community transmission in Iran 9 deaths in multiple cities 60 hospitalized British Columbia, Canada ex-Iran Community transmission in Humboldt County, California Probable cluster Princess Diamond Fiasco Remaining testing limited More COVID cases at Travis AFB and Lockland AFB A dozen hospitalized in northern California Similar number likely for Texas http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_022020_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Feb 21 17 year anniversary of Metropole Hotel check-in Start of International spread All had 29 nt deletion in orf8 Outbreaks including HCWs in Toronto, Hanoi, Singapore, Hong Kong Guangdong Province had 300 SARS cases and 5 deaths Feb 21, 2020 felt like mid March,2003 when International spread was picked up by media Superspreader (38M) in Italy infects at least 15 including HCWs Superspreader in South Korea linked to explosion of over 400 cases at church gathering Deaths and cases in Iran Iran exports to British Columbia, Canada and Lebanon (1-3 cases) WHO COVID teleconference Window of opportunity closing Media asking if widow already closed CDC COVID teleconference Cruise ship rescue (Diamond Princess) Change counting to separate Evacuees (Wuhan and Diamond Princess) from US cases More Diamond Princess cases expected Iran a serious problem Surveillance begins next week Local kit validation still in progress Feb 21 signaled tipping point in pandemic http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_022120_hr2.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 (edited) Feb 24 Feb 21 was tipping point Predictions on Feb 21 1 1/2 hour interview confirmed over weekend Pandemic beyond containment Outbreaks in South Korea and Italy grew over weekend Iran was biggest concern due to location and size Iran grew rapidly and initial report of two deaths signaled larger outbreak Exports to Canada and Lebanon signal larger problem Confirmed over weekend with Iran exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan Diamond Princess fiasco winds down More grew members infected and asymptomatic evacuees develop symptoms CDC still hasn't updated test results for evacuees General public beginning to realize pandemic has arrived https://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/022420.mp3 Edited February 24, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Feb 24 - 1 1/2hrs Increasing numbers for Italy 231 (now 283) South Korea 829 (now 977) Iran 50 deaths in Qom (now 95 confirmed cases in country) Canary Islands (Tenerife) MD ex-Italy (Lombardy district) Iran exports Canada (British Columbia) - cluster (1 + 1) Lebanon (1st) Bahrain (1 + 1) - first two Oman (1st - now 2) Iraq (1st now 5) Kuwait (now eight) Afghanistan (1st w/ 2 suspect) Diamond Princess 4th death (80's) CDC website 36 confirmed from Diamond Princess No Press Release CDC switching to weekly newsletter Distribution in Nebraska (Omaha), Texas (Lackland),California (Travis) Community Spread surveillance delayed - recalled kits COVID in US but not detected due to lack of testing http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_022420_hr2.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2020 Feb 25 CDC Teleconference Community spread in Iran, Italy, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan Pandemic is when,not if Italy exports Spain striking examples Previously had two COVID cases (Canary Island with German cluster and Majorka with British cluster) Prior night was physician from Italy testing positive in Canary Islands Yesterday, his wife and two contacts tested positive Three more cases in mainland Spain (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia) Italy also origin for first case(s) for several countries Austria, Switzerland, Croatia, Algeria, Brazil Croatia linked to Champions League match between Atalanta and Valencia on Feb 19 in Milan, Italy Iran exports to multiple countries in Middle East including Canada, Lebanon, Iraq, Oman, Afghanistan, Kuwait Diamond Princess - 40 confirmed CDC kits recalled - surveillance delayed Lack of testing = lack of cases Arrivals from Italy not tested http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_022520_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) Feb 26 Community Spread Humboldt County California -announced LAST Thursday Solano County California - transferred to Sacramento County (UC Davis) Testing delays and HCW exposure (during delays which included TWO requests to CDC) Community transmission in Spain Large number of European exports, as well as Algeria and Brazil (from Italy) Confirmation on second island in Canary Islands Large clusters including community transmission and HCW infection in Germany Exports by Iran (including Canada) Absence if any reported imports into US from Italy Explosion of cases in South Korea, Italy, Iran http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_022620_hr3.mp3 Edited February 27, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2020 Feb 27 Community Transmission Wed night Press Release Humboldt Co issued second press release indicating contact was "indeterminate" (so first confirmed case remained as first example of community transmission in US) Solano Co case began in Vacaville Transferred to Sacramento (UC Davis) Testing difficulties Patient (46F) intubated - HCWs exposed Whistle Blower report on problems with evacuees at Travis http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_022720_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2020 Feb 28 CDC Telebriefing Test kit issues Lack of positives Not credible Full sequence of Solano Co (community transmission case (46F) Pre-print of Furin protease sequence Comparison with HPAI ploybasic cleavage site Four inserted aa PRRA https://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/022820.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 (edited) Feb 28 Community Spread US Humboldt Co California - 1 confirmed & 1 inconclusive (Feb 20) Solano Co California - transfer to Sacramento Co (UC Davis) - delayed testing & HCW exposure Santa Clara Co California - 3rd case (but 1st community spread) Washington Co Oregon - Elementary school closed (exposure) Snohomish Co Washington - High school student (also a new case in King Co ex-South Korea) Explosion in US because of lack of testing Exploding in Europe because of exports from Italy Exploding in Middle East because of exports from Iran Toronto has a case exported from Egypt Sweden has a case exported from Germany SARS CoV2 has a polybasic cleavage site (recognized by furin,which is in many cell types) The virus is present throughout the US and now with kit distribution,the numbers will explode http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_022820_hr3.mp3 Edited February 29, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted February 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 Feb 29 Community spread Santa Clara Co California Washington Co Oregon Snohomish Co Washington King Co Washington Fatality 50sM underlying conditions Long Term Care Facility 1 Resident 70sF 1 HCW 40sF Symptomatic 27 Residents 25 Staff 108 Residents at risk 180 Staff at risk https://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/022920.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2020 Mar 1 Sequence match between Snohomish Co sequence in community case (17M) and January 1st in UScase (35M also Snohomish) Match implications Contact tracing FAILED COVID circulating in Snohomish Co since mid Jan Lack of testing creates false sense of security Screening entries overlooks cases in US US residents at HIGH RISK Cases spreading under radar Solano Ca case not tested - HCWs at risk (and now COVID positive) Transferred to UC Davis - 1st request denied more HCWs at risk Positive led to change in criteria Explosion of cases Italy and Iran exporting cases throughout Europe and Middle East Prior to change ZERO import cases in US in spite of exports to Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, Canada After change imports from Italy, Iran,and Egypt 1st (and now 2nd) death in Washington Massive outbreak at LTCF (now 8 confirmed including 1 death) Claims of limited cases in US due to lack of testing Time to stop looking at where cases were instead of where they are now https://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/03/030120.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Flynn Posted March 2, 2020 Report Share Posted March 2, 2020 "Sequence match between Snohomish Co sequence in community case (17M) and January 1st in UScase (35M also Snohomish)" Is the January 1st a clerical error? Is it the 21st? See A confirmed case of novel coronavirus 2019 in Snohomish County was announced January 21, 2020. The patient had recently traveled to Wuhan, China. *Update 2/20/2020* In consultation with state and federal public health authorities, the Snohomish Health District has released the patient from home isolation. The above is from a search summary. I cannot find on Snohd.org’s (Snohomish Health District) announcement but there are several “supposed” links to it, which do not appear to work. https://www.snohd.org/Search?searchPhrase= novel coronavirus 2019 in Snohomish County was announced January 21%2C 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Schultz Posted March 2, 2020 Report Share Posted March 2, 2020 He didn't mean January 1st, Stephen, only the first case in the U.S. which you are correct was on the 21st. If you remember that case got sicker and sicker by the day until they stopped all the things they were trying and used intravenous remdesivir, which seemed to miraculously make him better overnight. Hopefully they have a good supply of remdesivir on hand... Dr. Niman, you say that the stated 10% CFR for SARS was only of hospitalized people with pneumonia. That was something like 800 out of 8,000, which I believe is what they say was the total number of cases. So they're not aware of any people who had only mild symptoms or were asymptomatic with SARS and didn't need hospitalization? That sounds doubtful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2020 4 hours ago, Jon Schultz said: He didn't mean January 1st, Stephen, only the first case in the U.S. which you are correct was on the 21st. If you remember that case got sicker and sicker by the day until they stopped all the things they were trying and used intravenous remdesivir, which seemed to miraculously make him better overnight. Hopefully they have a good supply of remdesivir on hand... Dr. Niman, you say that the stated 10% CFR for SARS was only of hospitalized people with pneumonia. That was something like 800 out of 8,000, which I believe is what they say was the total number of cases. So they're not aware of any people who had only mild symptoms or were asymptomatic with SARS and didn't need hospitalization? That sounds doubtful. A CASE fatality rate is based on defined CASES, which required LAB CONFIRMED PNEUMONIA. SARS, MERS, and COVID are diseases that captured the interest of clinicians because they cause ATYPICAL PNEUMONIA. Mild and asymptomatic individuals infected with the virus are NOT CASES (only cases with pneumonia are used to calculate the CFR for SARS and MERS). The 10% CFR for SARS only includes LAB CONFIRMED PNEUMONIA cases, which was also the origin definition for COVID. The pneumonia part was dropped because the 15% CFR was too ALARMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Flynn Posted March 2, 2020 Report Share Posted March 2, 2020 3,044 deaths / 89,072 confirmed cases = 3.4% If we look at cases with known outcomes, then the population would be 3,044 + total recovered of 45,074, this would give us a total population of 48,118. That leaves 40,954 a remaining set of cases for which the outcome is unknown. Deaths of 3,044 / the total population with known outcomes (48,118) gives us 6.3%. If the 89,072 are the “cases,” in the CFR then it seems that using this definition is pointless. To say that the CFR today is 3.4% is useless information. Why? Because it assumes that all in the remaining 40,954 will recover and no deaths will occur. It seems to me that CFR should not be discussed at all, excepting as a future prediction. About half the “cases” have either died or recovered. So far, worldwide the “death rate” is ~6.3%. So why does the media focus on CFR which understates the death rate? I suppose that for every “case” there may be one, or two, or more, who do not make the definition of “case.” If so, then 6% would (if later defined as cases) drop to 2-3% death rate. My take is that CFR ought not be a quantifier for public information, nor even for clinical use, for it has this large “as yet undetermined” component. So why is the CFR even used? Why not “death rate for the population with known outcomes? Your answer implies the reason is that it would be too alarming, and 3.4% looks less alarming than 6.3%. If so, then so much for honesty and transparency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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