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Pandemic Potentials Blog

Interviews On Novel 2019-nCoV Coronavirus In Wuhan

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  • I expect this pandemic to be worse in the US than 1918, and Trump's role will loom large.

Dr. Niman, why do you think SARS stopped spreading and, in your estimation, how likely is it that 2019-nCov will stop spreading in the next month or two - or before it becomes a severe global pandemic - as well?

Thanks in advance.

  • Author

Jan 31 

Jump in PCR confirmed cases to 29,779

Expansion of Germany cluster to nine victims in six cities in three countries

New Countries

Russia
Finland
Philippines
India
Italy
Sweden
Spain

Taxi Driver Thailand

Van Driver Japan

Pre-print on HIV sequences (False)

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_013120_hr3.mp3

 

Great interview, Dr. Niman, thank you. The only thing I'll point out is that you sometimes said Hubei when you meant Wuhan.

  • Author

Feb 2

Jump in PCR confirmed cases to 38,763

New US Cases

Santa Clara

Boston

Santa Clara #2

San Benito Cluster

Philippine fatality

Lancet paper on 99 cases (original 41 plus 58)

8 new outcome (5 fatal)

WHO CFR of 2.2% (not real)

Re-run of fake 4 % CFR for SARS (and existing reports describing the rising CFR)

Actual CFR for first 41 Wuhan cases (in 20-25% range)

http://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/020220.mp3

 

 

Edited by niman

Most major cities in the world are probably already seeded by the virus coming from travelers outside Hubei.

Really wondering what it will look like in two weeks...

  • Author

Feb 3

PCR confirmed cases jump to 43,652

Hong Kong Death

New US Cases in Santa Clara CA (2), Boston MA, San Benito cluster

Fake 2.2% CFR talking point

SARS re-run on fake CFR

CFR for 1st 41 Wuhan cases

CFR for first 1,057 outcomes in China

England cluster sequences with orf8 mutation

Shenzhen and Chicago clusters with orf8 mutation

orf8 mutation cited in NEJM on 1st US case (WA)

Recombination in Chicago and Los Angeles seqs

orf8 mutation in Wuhan, Shenzhen, Phoenix

SARS similarity of selection for orf8 mutation

German cluster grows to 12 across 6 cities in 3 countries

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_020320_hr3.mp3

 

 

Edited by niman

  • Author

Feb 4

PCR confirmed cases increase to 47,584

National lab confirmations increase  - Suspect cases (23,260) below Confirmed (24,324)

Discharged cases (892) doubles deaths (490)

Confirmations on quarantined cruise ship off coast of Japan ex-Hong Kong

Ship has 3711 people with 120 symptomatic and 153 contacts (11 nCov confirmed in first 31 tests)

First sequence from South Korea has orf8 mutation

orf8 mutations in nCoV and SARS

CDC sequences two isolates from first nCoV case in United States

orf8 mutation is US sequences from 4 of first 5 cases (WA IL CA AZ)

San Benito cluster cases worsen - transferred to UCSF

Sudden death videos from China including security guard

Striking similarities with 1918 pandemic

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_020420_hr3.mp3

 

 

Edited by niman

  • Author

Feb 5

PCR confirmed cases increase to 52,720

National lab confirmations caught up  - Suspect cases (24,702) below Confirmed (28,018)

Discharged cases (1,153) doubles deaths (563)

Tencent flash of higher nCoV numbers on confirmed, suspect, deaths

Tencent number on discharges too low - inconsistent with results for exported cases

Confirmations on quarantined cruise ship off coast of Japan ex-Hong Kong

Ship has 3711 people with 120 symptomatic and 153 contacts (20 nCov confirmed in first 102 tests)

2,666 passengers & 1045 crew

Passengers include

About 1300 Japanese, 416 Americans, 251 Canadians, 223 Australians , 13 New Zealanders,10 Israelis

Crew includes 538 from Philippines

nCov equal opportunity infector

Confirmed cases

7 Japan, 3 Hong Kong, 3 United States, 2 Australia, 2 Canada, 1 Taiwan, 1 New Zealand, 1 Philippines

14 day quarantine will keep being extended as new nCoV cases are confirmed

The increasing numbers will appear for each country with confirmed passengers or crew

Demand will increase to remove passengers from ship and return to country of origin

Situation starting to look like Twilight Zone episode of "To Serve Man" with nCoV looking for dinner

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_020520_hr3.mp3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by niman

  • Author

Feb 6

Diamond Princess cruise ship

41 additional confirmations

Nationalities (total)

28 Japan, 11 United States, 7 Australia, 7 Canada, 3 Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, Philippines,  Argentina, United Kingdom 

Future developments

PCR confirmed in China up to 57,520

MD Deaths 

Whistle Blower 34M Wuhan

Hunan - 28M Exhaustion

Sudden Death videos and similarity to 1918 Pandemic

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_020620_hr3.mp3

  • Author

Feb 7

Diamond Princess

3/6 nCoV positive

2 American

Reset on quarantine clock

Severe case

Twilight Zone - To Serve Man re-run

PCR confirmed in China up to 62,203 (34,546 confirmed)

Pangolin natural host - nCoV 99% identical

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_020720_hr3.mp3

Edited by niman

  • Author

Feb 10

Diamond Princess Fiasco

Daily positives/tested 10/31, 10/71, 41/171, 3/6, 6/57, 65/103

Index case 80M Hong Kong likely "canary in the coal mine"

Case number and nationalities early and late signal ongoing transmission on ship

Community nCoV transmission in Singapore and Hong Kong

Onward transmission Singapore-->France ski resort-->England (also Singapore-->Spain linkage)

nCoV spread will not be stopped by quarantines or border closures

http://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/021020.mp3

Just got some new headphones for this thread alone. Will start listening later.

80M as in 80 million cases?

  • Author

Feb 10

Diamond Princess

65/103 positive

Distribution same as earlier set (Japan US Australia top both lists)

42,638 Confirmed Cases in China

Stopped counting asymptomatic

Infections will continue (like cross contamination via meal delivery / collection)

Need to test all and get them off the ship (in hospital if positive or properly equipped quarantine center)

Hong Kong community spread

35-story residential building with 2 confirmed cases 10 stories apart

Super spreader from Singapore to France Spain UK

Asymptomatic affecting HCWs, schools, clinics

Too late to stop spread

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_021020_hr3.mp3

 

45 minutes ago, niman said:

No. 80M = eighty year old male

Oh my...

Thank you. Should have noticed that myself. I'll just stay at the back of the class.

In the ship how is drainage possibly causing transmission since water drainage is going away from occupants?

So is the transmission more from air circulation?

Food should be delivered on the floor, to the front door of the room, then tell everyone to pick up food  all at the same set time to keep workers away from contact of occupants. Then pick them up at a set time, so they are picked up all at once.

It only takes one, and the Jeanie is out of the bottle... wow.

Dr. Niman thanks for the interview

Edited by Charles Lewis ND

  • Author
8 hours ago, Charles Lewis ND said:

In the ship how is drainage possibly causing transmission since water drainage is going away from occupants?

So is the transmission more from air circulation?

Food should be delivered on the floor, to the front door of the room, then tell everyone to pick up food  all at the same set time to keep workers away from contact of occupants. Then pick them up at a set time, so they are picked up all at once.

It only takes one, and the Jeanie is out of the bottle... wow.

Dr. Niman thanks for the interview

The drainage issue was about the 35 story apartment building in Hong Kong -nothing to do with ship

  • Author

Feb 11

Diamond Princess

39/53 new positives

Limit on diagnostic kits

Severe cases

New name for nCoV

New case definition which eliminates pneumonia requirement

Asymptomatic cases not counted by China

Asymptomatic cases for lowering CFR

US cases

Asymptomatic cases expanding cluster in Germany

Asymptomatic cases expanding cluster originating in Singapore

Hong Kong 35 story apartment cluster

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_021120_hr3.mp3

On 2/11/2020 at 1:04 AM, niman said:

Feb 10

nCoV spread will not be stopped by quarantines or border closures

http://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/021020.mp3

I listened to this, and given what I've seen in China of the quarantine sites and the fact that the UK two days ago gave themselves the power to forcably remove people and put them in quarantine centers should the need arise, it's safe to say that hearing you say that these places are not going to help with this is quite alarming.

Not because you've confirmed what I've seen but because of how slow some of the world has been on tackling this virus. I'm very anxious about how long it's going to take those in power to finally catch up with this theory and to what detriment? How many of these places will go up in how many countries before realizing it's the wrong thing to do - it's an alarming consideration. They are basically mass incubation centers where cross infection must be rife.

If anything was to happen in a western country, even remotely close to what's actually happening in China - especially in regards to these quarantine sites and self isolating - there would be massive social upheaval in a very short space of time as there are no constrictions on social media in western countries like there is in China.

There has been much praise from various heads of state on how China has handled this situation, with strong indications that most countries agree with the mass quarantine and that raises for questions than answers in my opinion.

These are not questions directed to yourself Dr Niman, they're just questions in general. More concerns than questions.

 

  • Author

Feb 13

Diamond Princess

Shortage of diagnostic kits (also in US and China)

Testing at risk passengers (80 and over, pre-existing condition, interior cabins)

44/221 COVID positive

Likely via on board cross contamination (80M from Hong Kong left ship weeks ago)

only 713 tested

10/31,10/71, 41/171, 3/6,65/103, 39/53, 44/221

All should be tested and removed from ship

Historic management failures by WHO, Japan CDC, US CDC

All passengers and crew should be PCR tested and moved to safer location (Quarantine center or Hospital)

http://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/02/021320.mp3

Edited by niman

On 2/12/2020 at 1:04 PM, psk said:

I listened to this, and given what I've seen in China of the quarantine sites and the fact that the UK two days ago gave themselves the power to forcably remove people and put them in quarantine centers should the need arise, it's safe to say that hearing you say that these places are not going to help with this is quite alarming.

Not because you've confirmed what I've seen but because of how slow some of the world has been on tackling this virus. I'm very anxious about how long it's going to take those in power to finally catch up with this theory and to what detriment? How many of these places will go up in how many countries before realizing it's the wrong thing to do - it's an alarming consideration. They are basically mass incubation centers where cross infection must be rife.

If anything was to happen in a western country, even remotely close to what's actually happening in China - especially in regards to these quarantine sites and self isolating - there would be massive social upheaval in a very short space of time as there are no constrictions on social media in western countries like there is in China.

There has been much praise from various heads of state on how China has handled this situation, with strong indications that most countries agree with the mass quarantine and that raises for questions than answers in my opinion.

These are not questions directed to yourself Dr Niman, they're just questions in general. More concerns than questions.

 

 

Dr. Niman thanks for clarifying the drainage issue. I later heard you mention it was from flushing toilets in aptmt buildings, and leaks created an issue.

  • Author

Feb 14

Diamond Princess 

US To evacuate negatives to Travis AFB and Lackland AFB

Possibly back by Sunday

Only negatives eligible

Will be a 14 day quarantine in US

US preparing for community transmission

Surveillance centers in LA SF Seattle Chicago NYC

Incubation times

Diagnostic kit issues in US China Japan

Jump in China cases due to use of clinical profile instead to PCR

1716 HCWs positive in China (including 6 deaths)

Fake rumors on 1000 positive in US being hidden by CDC

http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_021420_hr2.mp3

 

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