Jon Schultz Posted March 2, 2020 Report Share Posted March 2, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, niman said: A CASE fatality rate is based on defined CASES, which required LAB CONFIRMED PNEUMONIA. SARS, MERS, and COVID are diseases that captured the interest of clinicians because they cause ATYPICAL PNEUMONIA. Mild and asymptomatic individuals infected with the virus are NOT CASES (only cases with pneumonia are used to calculate the CFR for SARS and MERS). The 10% CFR for SARS only includes LAB CONFIRMED PNEUMONIA cases, which was also the origin definition for COVID. The pneumonia part was dropped because the 15% CFR was too ALARMING. Thanks for your response. From looking at the CDC website - https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/faq.html - I see what you're saying: "During November 2002 through July 2003, a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with severe acute respiratory syndrome that was accompanied by either pneumonia or respiratory distress syndrome (probable cases), according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Of these, 774 died." The WHO has a comprehensive document on the outbreak - https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf - but although it contains a section on "The presence and significance of subclinical infection" it doesn't even estimate how many people became infected with the SARS virus but were asymptomatic or only had mild illness. Perhaps there's more information somewhere else on the WHO website. As I think I said in an earlier post I think instead of just "case fatality rate" there should be three more specific metrics discussed about every pathogen - the infection fatality rate, the illness fatality rate, and the severe illness (warranting hospitalization) fatality rate - as all three are important to know and then you wouldn't have this kind of apples-to-oranges comparison. Edited March 2, 2020 by Jon Schultz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2020 Mar 2 Community spread Snohomish county sequences show match between index case (35M in mid Jan) and community spread case (17M in late Feb) King Co Long Term Care Facility 5 deaths Health Care Workers in Solano/Santa Clara/Placer Cos Lack of testing Recent explosion of cases More testing needed http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_030220_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) March 3 Community transmission in Westchester County Trip from Miami School closings in Westchester Co and the Bronx Cuomo Presser $40 million program for state labs and hospitals 1,000 COVID tests per day https://recombinomics.co/thedrnimanshow/2020/03/030320.mp3 Edited March 4, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) Mar 3 Recombinant sequence in Kings Co ex-South Korea case Dual infections Polybasic cleavage site CDC Presser Snohomish sequence matches 35M in mid Jan with 17M in late Feb CDC press release warning of 16% serious cases Westchester Co community transmission 1000 COVID tests per day Tipping point Tony Fauci comments to Politico: "could be really really bad" http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_030320_hr3.mp3 Edited March 4, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoffeeLover Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 What does this mean in Dr. Niman speak? We were watching for recombs in H1N1+++. Is this the same scenario? Dual infections Polybasic cleavage site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 Mar 4 Grand Princess Cruise Ship San Francisco to Ensenada Mexico Ended Feb 21 Two passengers COVID positive (Solano and Placer Co) Placer Co passenger died (first CA death) 2500 passengers - half in CA Tracing found that 62 signed up for another cruise on same ship Second cruise SF-->Hawaii-->Ensenada Mexico-->SF Diverted from Ensenada to return to SF Off SF coast 20 on board symptomatic (10 passengers and 10 crew) Flying test kits to ship Conspiracy Hoaxes Bioweapon because of: polybasic cleavage site (natural found in high path H5 and H7 can change DURING outbreak) HIV inserts (poorly designed Genbank search - preprint WITHDRAWN) Cluster in Westchester Co (New Rochelle) 1000 test per day Numbers will explode http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_030420_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Mar 5 Grand Princess First cruise Feb 11 - Feb 21 SF-->Mexico-->SF At least six COVID confirmed - 4 CA (2 Sonoma, 1 Solano, 1 fatal Placer) & 2 Canada (Alberta and Ontario) One probable - fatal Sunnyvale (with first responders quarantined) Second cruise intercepted going from Hawaii to Mexico 62 from first cruise + 10 passengers and 10 crew symptomatic Results on Friday Sequences for Seattle area and Diamond Princess Lack of testing No imports from Italy until recent start of testing Widespread community spread (northern CA, Seattle area, NY) Too little too late http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_030520_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) Mar 6 Grand Princess Cruise 1st leg SF to Mexico Half of passengers from CA Alerted by COVID positive Solano and Placer co passengers At least 18 passengers have been COVID confirmed in US and Canada 2nd leg SF to Hawaii to Mexico to SF Intercepted after Hawaii 21/46 positive 19/21 positives are crew members New Rochelle NY cluster grows to 44 Link to NJ and AIPAC Washington DC attendees Many more expected http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_030620_hr3.mp3 Edited March 11, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 Mar 9 Italy lock down Explosive spread Expanded testing Quest and LabCorp NY Goal of 10,000 tests per day Insurance coverage CDC Conference call CPAC AIPAC Spread to Los Angeles. Cleveland, Toronto CFR SARS vs COVID-19 SARS Pneumonia only http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_030920_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) Mar 10 Biogen outbreak in Boston 70 confirmed in MA Many more states and countries Compare to Metropole Hotel in Hong Kong in 2003 This year sequence was known early Explosion in Europe was know, along with spread from Italy Employees went to MGH but couldn't get tested - LAST WEEK! Testing still limited in US WHO should have declared a pandemic long ago New sequences from Diamond Princess and Grand Princess US and Japan passengers did not match on Diamond Princess Seattle sequence on Grand Princess but at least two lineages http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031020_hr3.mp3 Edited March 11, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Schultz Posted March 11, 2020 Report Share Posted March 11, 2020 URL needs to be corrected, Dr. Niman, to http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031020_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Mar 11 WHO Declares Pandemic Presidential oval office speech European sans UK travel ban Failure to understand the definition of pandemic Market reaction NBA shutdown March madness without live audience Tom Hanks confirmed in Australia (where he can be tested) Sen Cantwell's aid positive in Washington DC office Return of SARS CoV in fall Pattern of pandemics (will be more severe in fall) http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031120_hr3.mp3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) Mar 12 Major profession and college sports shutting down Schools going on spring break and then going online Theater closings in New York When does it end? Could be worse in fall Trump's ban on Europe Confusing on who was banned Americans were rushing back Virus from Italy is via American citizens returning home Low cases is due to lack of testing http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031220_hr3.mp3 Edited March 15, 2020 by niman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) Mar 13 National Emergency Funding Good marks form acknowledging emergency Lots of handshaking Mar-a-Lago links to confirmed and suspect COVID cases Difficulties getting testing done Testing limited even at expanded sites Seattle Flu program Sequences from Seattle match first Grand Princess first trip Minnesota matches http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031320_hr3.mp3 Edited March 17, 2020 by niman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2020 Mar 16 Italy 368 Deaths Sunday 349 Deaths Monday Massive under count in US NY leads 211 today for total of 950 Washington 904 with 48 deaths Details on lack of testing Efforts in Western PA Comparison to 2009 swine flu Sequence of New Rochelle index case orf8 with European markers Much closer to Italy than appears When testing kicks in US will be number one in world for reported cases http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031620_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2020 Mar 17 Italy Daily deaths - 368, 349, 345 NYC to 1374 Washington 1012 w/ 52 deaths New Rochelle - Index orf8 lineage with European markers Spread from Italy to US (east coast) Pennsylvania to 96 Montgomery County - map and ages for 34 cases (most in 30/s and 40's) - 2 over 70, average age 45 Fox Chapel High School in Allegheny county Gross under count US close to Italy http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031720_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Enders Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Requesting links for 3/19, 3/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Mar 18 Flattening curve Testing shortages White House press conference Trading halt Confirmed case jump 10% rise in deaths? 40% rise in death - actual LTCF MMWF NYC SIP Greater than South Korea US will pass France Italy 475 deaths US will pass Italy Canadian border close More COVID in US than anywhere in the world http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031820_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Mar 19 US Will be #1 in cases and deaths In 2009 40% of children in Pittsburgh were positive for swine flu antibodies 30-50% of US population with be SARS CoV2 infected NJ fatal cluster incl 1st death in PA Cruise ships for housing patients http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_031920_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 Mar 20 Italy - Health Care Failure Deaths - 475, 425, 627 5,986 cases US moved past South Korea and France Will pass Iran, Germany, Spain tomorrow 3rd place tomorrow Deaths increasing Exponential growth Doubling in 2 days 5151 cases in NYC. almost 8,000 in NYS LTCF outbreaks - driving death rate Brooklyn - Orthodox - test under 1000 and had over 500 positive (56%) Trump not releasing inventory in Strategic Reserve Not ordering companies to make masks and ventilation machines Pandemic at 1918 levels Also impacting younger patients Heart irregularities Polybasic cleavage site (Furin widespread) http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_032020_hr3.mp3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dimitar Posted March 24, 2020 Report Share Posted March 24, 2020 Dr. Niman, are there any interviews from the beginning of the week. Could we have link to check for new interviews in future? Thank you for your work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Dimitar said: Dr. Niman, are there any interviews from the beginning of the week. Could we have link to check for new interviews in future? Thank you for your work Interview are M-F from 11-midnight ET If you change the URL to the date you want, like yesterday, you can usually get to the interview by the following early morning. http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_032320_hr3.mp3 Edited March 25, 2020 by niman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) Mar 23 Trump news conference Lift social distancing / SIP efforts at 15 day mark Uneven across states Talk down virus Limited media audience US will be #1 in COVID cases by Friday US adding 10,000 cases per day (Italy and others below 5,000 per day) 15 day social distancing ends on Monday New York out of control 5,000 positive out of 16,000 tested US had over 100 deaths in one day Competing with Europe for PPEs Spread began Feb 21 Italy spread to south and north America New York sequences match Italy http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_032320_hr3.mp3 Edited March 25, 2020 by niman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 Feb 24 Sequences show Italian strain widespread Shortages predicted No Co-ordination Scatted SIP plans Europe seeded by Italy Same true for eastern US US looking at Wuhan while Italian strain invaded Milan Fashion show seeded New York Mardi Gras seeded New Orleans Detroit running low on ventilators New Jersey now #2 in cases in US Italian strain more virulent WHO says US will be world's COVID epicenter US will be #1 by Friday Trump wants to declare US open for business Was targeting Monday Now targeting Easter Sunday Planning Jonestown re-run No one is going to drink the Kool Aid Trump is living in another universe http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_032420_hr3.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
niman Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 (edited) Feb 25 Entire country at risk Trump back to hoax argument - Democrats destroying economy to win election All about Trump Catastrophe will be much worse than it has to be Trump left conference early US will be #1 on Thursday Ahead of schedule NY adding 5,000 new cases / day (testing 15,000 / day) Today US up to 14,000 new cases per day (two seasons of SARS) That rate will move US past Italy and China Exponential growth In a couple of weeks 14,000 cases per day will be small Curve bending/flattening by countries in Asia Europe steeper because of Italian strain Two strains dominant (orf8 and Italian) In US east of Mississippi is Italian strain http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_032520_hr3.mp3 Edited March 26, 2020 by niman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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